soi keo dem nay is the best sport to begin with if you want to make sure that your bets are profitable.
All the major bookmakers have inflated the prices of soccer matches. There are some great guaranteed profitable bets if you know where and when to look. There are many innovative bets available and sports bookmakers don’t miss a beat when trying to extract money from you.
Timing is a key factor in soccer. The more early the price appears, the greater the chance of a sure-bet (arb) or arbitrage opportunity.
As soccer is now a major income stream for bookmakers, it’s evident that they do a lot research. Because they know that serious punters are more savvy than bookmakers and will take advantage of any news that might give them an edge, they need to do this. They advertise heavily in tabloids.
While there may only be one odds compiler for minor sports, soccer is too lucrative to have many. This means that the big bookmakers will have many odds compilers setting prices feverishly. Because soccer is a high-return sport, any European bookmaker will offer odds on it.
Their turnover in the soccer betting market is so high that Ladbrokes, and other big bookmakers, are willing to place a large bet on the outcome of any match. This is a great development for the arbmaker. This means that they can accept much higher bets.
There are many kinds of soccer betting. First, there’s the match winner. This can be divided into three results: win, lose, or draw. There are two options: the exact match score and the first goal scorer. Half-time, full time results, total corners and total throw-ins, as well as total yellow and red card counts are some of the less obvious options. Anywhere odds can be adjusted, there will be a betting opportunity.
What are the best soccer betting options? First, forget about predicting match scores. There are many possible outcomes. It is also a waste to try and predict the match score. These types of bets, while well-publicized, are only for mug punters. The odds are low and the bookmakers often make over 15% profit. These bets offer too many outcomes. We prefer bets that have at least 2 or 3 outcomes.
While other types of betting may produce the occasional arb, the main source of arbs lies in the match outcome over the 90-minute period. This is the area where we should focus our efforts. This can be broken down into three categories: win, lose, or draw.
Here’s an example:
Team A versus Team B.
Team A Draw Team B
Bet365 3/1
SpotingOdds 9/4
Victor Chandler 11/10
You can play the soccer market by opening accounts with European bookmakers. The difference in opinion between the UK and European bookmakers is a great source of sure bets. Both have strong opinions about this sport. They will both price the sport in their country and match in other countries. Any profit.
Italy is a country that is more obsessed with soccer than the UK. There are even newspapers dedicated to it. Everybody thinks they are the best at this topic and egos can get in the way. This is good news for us. European bookmakers are opinionated. While they might have more information about the happenings in their countries, they rely on third parties for information.
Midweek games between teams from different countries are a good place to start. When the opposition is ‘foreign,’ punters tend to be patriotic. As the money is heavily wagered in their favor, the chances of the home team being talked up could cause the odds to tilt in their favour.
Although the major bookmakers will usually advertise the price in the national newspapers, they tend to stick with it. The price has been established as a benchmark. However, subsequent bookmakers might offer different odds or take a different view. The arb could be available for a significant amount of time if this happens.
While there are always odds that the odds will be different, bookmakers seem to keep the same price. They believe there is safety in numbers. They are just guessing at the odds, just like you and I. They base their opinions on past experience. Although they may use statistical formulae, they still have to form an opinion about the likely outcome.
They might get it wrong, and other companies may have a completely different perspective on the outcome of a particular game. Although there will be slight variations in the odds, this could be enough to give you a profit.
Another option is to start with obscure games, eg. The lower divisions of the Norweigen, Italian and Spanish Spanish divisions. These discrepancies can be very lucrative. These will be covered across Europe by many different bookmakers. However, this can create a problem. It is not difficult to find arbs. However, if you focus your attention on these matches, you might be spotted by the bookmakers.
They will also be reluctant to accept large maximum bets on matches for which they have not done much research. It can also be a great way to learn arb spotting skills and gain valuable experience. This strategy has pros and cons.
This is an obscure area of betting. If someone were to look at your account for a few months and find only these foreign matches, it could be alarming. This is where diversifying your bets is key. You should bet on as many types of sports and events as you can so that your accounts are able to place different bets. You don’t have to worry about this as there are many great sports for sure bets.
Arbs are also produced by more prominent European connections. They are less likely attract attention and will result in lower maximum bets.
Although you can’t control whether individual bets lose or win, soccer is a 3-way game. Therefore, two losing bets against one winning bet can help your account. This is because not many people are interested at all in the lower European divisions. It may be obvious that this betting pattern is unusual. This is particularly true if you bet towards the maximum allowed.
Soccer can be very lucrative when it comes to injury news. It’s a lucrative area in soccer, just think about it. It will severely impact a player’s chances of being selected if he fails a late fitness check on Saturday. Recently, Alan Shearer showed up for a Newcastle premiership match but was not able to play. Newcastle were beaten by a convincing margin. This could have been possible, but I’m not saying it wouldn’t. The odds of the game changing were evident as soon as this news was announced.
Some bookmakers were aware of this and adjusted prices to reflect the influx of money for the opposition. Some bookmakers were slow to react, while others did not respond at all. Arbs were always available. This kind of last-minute frantic activity is especially popular on betting exchanges such as Betfair, where you can play the role of the punter (lay bets)
One of the many websites that cover soccer has injury news. Satellite television channels also provide complete news coverage of all games and can quickly give any ‘off-the-press’ news. The bookmakers’ prices will slowly change but not all at once, so it is possible to place sure bets.
If prices are changing, bet on the old one first. If you wait too long, the new price will not change the old price.
Arb hunting is all about timing, which I will again emphasize. Arbs will appear more often if the odds are high for them to be produced first or have reason to change.
Recent changes in English referees’ attitude towards issuing yellow cards have seen them become more flexible. This has had an impact on the price of the total number bookings for a game. Some bookmakers increased their prices while others did not. This will impact the total bet ranges.
Let’s take a look at the yellow and red card market. The yellow and red card bets are calculated at 10 points for a yellow card, and 25 for a red. A match can have a maximum 35 point limit (10 + 25).
The three ranges of betting are usually divided. Below 11 points at odds of 100/30, 11-30 points at 6/4, and over 30 at 11/10. The most likely outcome is at around 11/10. This is except for animosity, in which case the odds will be adjusted accordingly.
Here’s an example:
Team A versus team B – Total points earned for yellow and red cards during the match.
Minimum 11 points 11-30 points More than 30 points
Ladbrokes 100/30
William Hill 6/4
Victor Chandler 11/10
This type of bet is unlikely to figure in your plans. It is not common to see information that could affect your total bets. A simple piece of information, such as the policy change for issuing cards, can impact prices and cause arbs. It is safe to say that you shouldn’t expect much betting activity to result from the issuing red and yellow cards, but it is easy enough to verify the odds.
Many arb opportunities are available through soccer and the English football league. It is very busy during the soccer season so if you have 3 hours each Saturday, there could be up to half a dozen arbs. It can be equally rewarding to spend the same amount of time researching prices as they appear earlier in the week. Make a plan and focus on how you will organize your trading activities.
It is more common for obscure British matches to offer an arb as opposed to premiership games. Because there is less information on injuries and team selection, this is why the arb is more common in obscure British matches. Because they are highly visible, bookmakers spend a lot time researching the probable result of premiership games. However, they are less likely than other players to research the minor games. They will often resort to the “safety in number” approach, and they all quote the same price for games with little or no information.
This could lead to more knowledgeable bookmakers who are more likely to offer different prices and seek out the money. Arbs will naturally result. This is a major news event that can change the chances of a team, so stay informed by visiting one of the many soccer websites.
As we have already mentioned, arbs are produced regularly by foreign games. It doesn’t matter if it’s because of fundamental differences in opinion between continental and British bookmakers, or simply the fact that foreign bookmakers are better informed about their matches. Price variations are common.
These are some recent UEFA Cup examples:
FK Teplice versus Celtic (Note: The odds are in decimal format).
Celtic Win(1) Draw(X). FK Teplice Lose(2)
Sportwetten 1.45
Canbet 5.50
Canbet 13.00
These are the odds converted to percentages
Celtic Win(1) Draw(X). FK Teplice Lose(2)
Sportwetten 68.97
Canbet 18.18
Canbet 7.69
The arb was about 5%. Our total stake would have been PS1,000. We would have placed about PS690 on Celtic and PS182 on draw, as well as PS77 on FK Teplice.
It was interesting to note that Canbet made up two sides of the arb. They believed that Celtic were the overwhelming favourites to win this tie, and they priced it accordingly. Sportwetten and other bookmakers had the Celtic win priced at 1.45. They were favourites, but not as much than Canbet thought. Canbet might have been trying to get a lot of people’s money. They offered FK Treplice at what seemed to be very high prices.
Another example: Benfica against Rosenborg
Benfica Win(1) Draw(X) Benfica Lose(2)
Canbet 1.95
SportOdds 3.50
SportOdds 5.50
These are the odds converted to percentages
Benfica Win(1) Draw(X) Benfica Lose(2)
Canbet 51.28
SportOdds 28.57
SportOdds 18.18
This led to an arb rate of 2.0%. Our total stake would have been PS1,000. We would have placed about PS513 on Benfica and PS288 on the draw, as well as PS182 on Rosenborg.
Although not as lucrative as the last arb, SportOdds is still the best bookmaker. They offer two generous prices and Canbet as the make weight.
The major clubs now have large squads that participate in at least three competitions. Tactical changes of personnel are more frequent and unpredictable than injury news, which is usually known only a few days before a match. To save the best players, be aware of personnel changes and weaker teams.
The rule is that you should get a price as soon as possible. If you call up before prices go online, a price differential may be more likely. Price movements can also be caused by frantic trading that occurs before matches. There are many bookmakers that offer prices, and they won’t all move in the same way.
